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美国对伊朗发动“经济战”意欲何为,专家分析_我的网站

一呼百应

一 |     

在军事手段难以达成目标之后,美国转而准备对伊朗发动大规模“经济战”。    The government of Venezuela is set to offer stakes in the state-owned Banco de Venezuela and telecom service provider CANTV in the coming weeks, it’s being reported.,Announcing the Banco de Venezuela public offering at a news conference in June, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez said the move would “give impetus to the national stock market” and “open the doors” of the enterprises “to national and international investors in local currency or foreign currency.”,“I think an important time has come for the Venezuelan Stock Market,” she said, stressing that while Venezuelans are “taking the first step with the Bank of Venezuela… the telecommunications company CANTV is coming soon.”,The public offering is the latest in a series of moves by authorities in the Caribbean nation to correct the course of their ailing economy. In late July, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro signed a law designating a number of Special Economic Zones in the country, with an eye towards ultimately transcending “the oil rentier model.”,Venezuela has been plagued for years by shortages, extreme inflation, and other serious issues caused in large part by Washington’s unilateral sanctions regime aimed at crippling the country’s economy.,To make matters worse, last week, the British Supreme Court ruled that approximately $2 billion in Venezuelan gold that’s currently being held in the Bank of England belongs to opposition leader Juan Guaido, rather than the elected government.,Maduro’s administration has indicated it will appeal the decision, but it seems unlikely that authorities in Caracas will prevail, especially given the UK’s extensive history of plotting against the Venezuelan government.,While intermittent power outages continue to interfere with oil exports, there are growing signs that Venezuela may have finally turned the corner financially and could soon stand on its own feet once again. Earlier this year, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean forecast that the economy will grow by 5.0% this year – the highest in all of South America.,The normalization of ties with Colombia’s incoming Gustavo Petro administration will also provide ample opportunities for increased income and reduced military expenditures. Business groups on both sides of the Colombia-Venezuela border say its planned reopening – which could come as soon as this week – should provide around $1.2 billion in trade by the end of the year.。

二 | 而经济制裁发挥效力需要时间,这对于当前特朗普政府面临的今年11月的中期选举压力来说,似乎是“远水解不了近渴”。美国在此时推出对伊“经济战”是迫于现实的无奈,选择给国内一个交代,还是另有战略考量?

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特约评论员 苏晓晖:美国在对伊朗政策手段接连受挫的情况之下,仍然没有放弃反复的试探和拉扯。美国政府也意识到,军事行动无法击垮伊朗政权,也无法完全清除伊朗的核能力,升级军事行动就会刺激油价,而做出退让则让伊朗更加强硬。随着中期选举临近,当美国对伊政策没有明确的目标,同样没有有效手段的时候,必然加剧国内的政治焦虑。

三 | 特约评论员 苏晓晖:美国政府以“经济战”的方式,再次尝试对伊朗极限施压。美国对伊朗的“经济战”核心目标是要以压促变,这种新的战术美国希望从多个方面看到效果。一方面从美国的角度来说,现在对伊朗进行施压,是希望美国发出强烈政治信号之后,有更多的国家跟进美国的政策,形成对伊朗经济绞杀的更大合力。特约评论员 苏晓晖:另外美国在关注伊朗内部会不会出现进一步的分裂,这涉及当前伊朗对于美国的政策。一方面伊朗国内反抗意志的增加,强调维护国家利益。另外一方面,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队更多强调使用强硬的手段,包括威胁可能主动对美国开启军事行动。但美国国内包括总统在内,认为现在是结束战争的时刻,所以美国通过经济方面的绞杀,希望伊朗内部出现进一步的分歧,使美国有机可乘。

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